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25/01/2019 - 21:30

Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems

Çağaçan Değer

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Primarily due to financial sustainability problems, social security reforms have been on the policy agenda of both developed and developing countries for the last decade. Research literature on the subject tends to use overlapping generations (OLG) models with single representative household and presents reforms as shock to the constructed model. This study presents an OLG model with three separate social security institutions where the heterogeneity is through different benefit payments and contribution rates. Convergence across various institutions is enabled by a replacement ratio shock and model dynamics are discussed.

Turkiye Imalat Sanayiinde Yapisal Dönüsüm ve Teknolojik Degisme Dinamikleri

Erol Taymaz , Ebru Voyvoda and Kamil Yılmaz

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Bu çalismada Türkiye imalat sanayiinde üretkenlik dinamikleri isyeri düzeyindeki veriler kullanilarak 1983-2001 dönemi için analiz edilmistir. Her yil yaklasik 10,000 isyerine ait detayli veriler kullanilarak ISIC (Rev. 2) 4-hane düzeyindeki sanayiler için stokastik üretim sinirlari tahmin edilmis, tahmin edilen parametreler kullanilarak isyeri düzeyinde esneklikler, ölçege göre getiri, teknolojik degisme hizi ve yönü ve teknik etkinlik düzeyi hesaplanmistir. Bu verileri kullanilarak 1983-2001 döneminde üretkenlik artislarinin bilesenleri (yapisal dönüsüm/isyerleri arasi, firma dinamikleri, isyeri içi, teknolojik degisme, ölçek ekonomileri, teknik etkinlik, girdi yogunlugu) bulunmustur. Çalismada ayrica isyeri düzeyindeki üretkenlik artisini belirleyen etkenler de analiz edilmistir.

Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey

Hakan Berüment , Nükhed Doğan and Aysit Tansel

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This paper investigates how macroeconomic policy shocks in Turkey affect the total unemployment and provides evidence on the differential responses of the unemployment by sectors of economic activity. Our paper extends the previous work in two respects. First, we consider not only the response of total unemployment but also the response of unemployment by sectors of economic activity. Second, we consider not only the effect of monetary policy shocks, but also the effects of several other macroeconomic shocks. The quarterly data used which covers the period 1988:01 to 2004:04 from Turkey. A VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of shocks in real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and own sectoral unemployment on unemployment by sectors of economic activity. The results indicate that the positive income shock is followed by a decrease in unemployment in all economic activity groups during the initial periods except th e unemployment in the Electricity sector and the Community Services sector. A positive money shock decreases unemployment in sectors of Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale-Retail Trade, Transportation and, Finance-Insurance. Opposite results are obtained with the interbank interest rate shocks. Even if, they are not statistically significant, a positive interbank interest rate shock increases the unemployment in all economic activities at the initial levels but derives down the unemployment in the Agriculture and the Community Services sectors at the initial level. Moreover, a positive price shock increases unemployment in all economic sectors in the long run except the Mining and the Community Services. Thus, unemployment in different sectors of economic activity respond differently to various macroeconomic policy shocks.

Private Supplementary Tutoring in Turkey Recent Evidence on Its Various Aspects

Aysit Tansel and Fatma Bircan

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This paper first describes the educational system in Turkey an the two national examinations for advancing upper levels of schooling which give raise to the demand for private tutoring called “dersane” in Turkish. Second, the evolution of the Private tutoring Centers (PTC) are described and compared with the high schools in the country. Third, geographical distribution of the PTC, general high schools and the proportion of high school age population are compared over the provinces to give an idea about special equity issues. Other topics addressed include gender and PTC students, disruption of mainstream education, determinants of the demand for services of the PTCs, cost of PTCs and evidence on the effectiveness of PTCs.

Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey

Ali T. Akarca and Aysit Tansel

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The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government’s failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blam ed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization.