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25/01/2019 - 21:30

Difficulties and Trade-offs in Performance Evaluation in Social Sciences: A Turkish Perspective

Fikret Şenses

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The main objective of this study is to briefly examine the process of performance evaluation in social sciences in Turkey from an international perspective and pinpoint the main difficulties and trade-offs involved in this process and suggest new ways of thinking to overcome them. Our discussion will be confined to social science research and publications by universities which in any event account for the bulk of these activities. Evaluation in social sciences can generally be conducted at the institutional, project and personal levels. While also touching upon the others, our emphasis will be on evaluation at the level of the individual researcher. We shall lean heavily on cases drawn from the field of economics and the Middle East Technical University with which we are more familiar.

Testing The Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: A Note

Erdal Özmen

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This paper investigates whether the Greek data actually support the monetarist hypotheses as argued by Karfakis (2002). The results based on both ARDL and Johansen procedures consistently suggest that money and nominal income (prices) are endogenous for the parameters of the long-run evolution of velocity (real money balances). Thus, the basic postulation of monetarism, the exogeneity of money, appears not to be supported by the Greek data.

Rethinking the Emerging Post-Washington Consensus: A Critical Appraisal

Ziya Öniş and Fikret Şenses

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The objective of the paper is to provide a critical assessment of the emerging post-Washington Consensus (PWC), as a new paradigm in the development debate. The paper begins by tracing the main record of the Washington Consensus, the set of neoliberal economic policies propogated foremost by key Bretton Woods Institutions like the World Bank and the IMF that penetrated into the economic policy agendas of many developing countries since the late 1970s. The paper then outlines the main tenets of the PWC, emerging from the shortcomings of that record and the reaction it created in the political realm. The paper, while accepting that the PWC provides a significant improvement over the Washington Consensus, draws attention to its failure to provide a sufficiently broad framework for dealing with key and pressing development issues such as income distribution, poverty and self-sustained growth.

Regional Variation In New Firm Formation In Turkey: Cross-Section And Panel Data Evidence

Esma Gaygısız and Miyase Yeşim Köksal

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Since the 1980s the promotion of the formation of new firms has been considered as one of the main policies in dealing with the problem of uneven regional economic development in many countries. The determination of regional characteristics that are influential on new firm formation is quite a bit essential to develop realistic and efficient policies to solve this problem. Turkey is one of the countries with a substantial variation in new firm formation across her regions which are also significantly diversified in terms of social and economic structures. In this context, the present study explores the variation in new firm formation in manufacturing sector across regions of Turkey and investigates the effects of regional characteristics on new firm formation. Furthermore, the study provides a comparison of the differences in regional variation in underlying firm birth processes between developed countries and Turkey as a representative of a developing country. The results of the cross-section and panel data analyses show that population density is the most significant variable in explaining regional variation in new firm formation in manufacturing sector in Turkey. Such an outcome supports the urban incubator theory implying that urban context contributes to new firm formation in manufacturing in Turkey.

Kamu Borçlanması, İstikrar Programları ve Uygulanan Maliye Politikalarının Kalitesi: Genel Sorunlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Gözlemler

Ferhat Emil and H. Hakan Yılmaz

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Bu tebliğde esas olarak istikrar programlarında mali uyumun kalitesi konusunda yanıt aramaya çalıştık. Genel teorik çerçeveden yola çıkarak mali uyumda kalite, büyümeye katkı sağlamaya yönelik maliye politikası tedbirleri ile mali uyumu sağlarken uygulanan enstrümanların kalitesi olmak üzere iki boyutta ele alınmıştır.

Debt Sustainability and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey

Nur Keyder

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The paper attempts to estimate the primary surplus requirement for debt sustainability in Turkey, taking into consideration not only the operational deficit and seigniorage factors but also the exchange rate factor. In estimations, a modified version of the approach suggested by the World Bank (2000:16-18; 121-124) is used (see Appendix A for the derivation of the original formula, which is slightly different from the one in the document mentioned). The analysis is carried out in two steps. First the real interest rate is estimated and then the results are plugged into the primary surplus equation. The exchange rate factor is taken up during the estimation of the real interest rate in TL, on FX-related debt. The debt sustainability issue is evaluated by comparing the estimated primary surplus-to-GNP ratios required for debt sustainability, with the targeted primary surplus ratio, taking into consideration the real interest rate and composition of the existing debt stock.

The Story of a Stabilization Effort: Turkey (2000-2002)

Nur Keyder

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Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to give an overview of the Turkish economy before and during the implementation of two different stabilization programs over the 2000-2002 period. Reforms undertaken and things that need to be done in both general terms and in the monetary and fiscal area are listed. The targets of the program are compared with the realizations. Success of the program is discussed in reference to developments in the main economic indicators. The most significant issue remaining concerns debt sustainability. Hence this topic is given special attention against the background of debt stock composition.

Job Satisfaction, Work Environment and Relations with Managers in Britain

Şaziye Gazioğlu and Aysit Tansel

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Little empirical work has been done on the relationship of job satisfaction to work environment and the managerial attitudes towards employees. Employees’ well being is important to the firm. Analysis of job satisfaction may give insight into various aspect of labor market behavior, such as worker productivity, absenteeism and job turn over. This paper investigates the relationship of worker satisfaction, to the work environment and the worker relationship to managers. We use a unique data of 28 240 British employees, Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS97). In this data set the employee questionnaire is matched with the employer questionnaire. Four measures of job satisfaction are negatively related to the establishment size. Establishment size in return is related to the degree of flexibility in the work environment and the relationship with the supervisors. We find that, contrary to the previous results lower levels of job satisfaction in larger establishments can not necessarily be attributed to the inflexibility in the work environment. However, the weak employee-manager relationships may be a major source of the observed lower levels of job satisfaction in larger establishments.

Job Satisfaction in Britain: Individual and Job Related Factors

Şaziye Gazioğlu and Aysit Tansel

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Recently there is a resurgence of interest in the analysis of job satisfaction variables. Job satisfaction is correlated with labor market behavior such as productivity, quits and absenteeism. Recent work examined job satisfaction in relation to various factors. In this paper four different measures of job satisfaction are related to a variety of personal and job characteristics. We use a unique data of 28 240 British employees Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS97). Our data set is larger and more recent than in the previous studies. The four measures of job satisfaction considered are satisfaction with influence over job, satisfaction with amount of pay, satisfaction with sense of achievement and satisfaction with respect from supervisors. Although the job satisfaction measures we use are somewhat different than those that are previously used in the literature, a number of results that are commonly obtained with international data are found to hold in our data set as well.

A Note on the Debt Sustainability Issue In Turkey

Nur Keyder

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Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to shed light on the composition of the public sector debt stock and using the end-2002 net public debt stock-to-GNP ratio as the starting point, estimate the primary surplus-to-GNP ratio that will be necessary for the sustainability of the debt stock, using a modified version of the approach suggested by the World Bank (2000:16-18; 121-124). The relevant tables on the primary surplus-to-GNP ratio requirements are constructed under different scenarios with respect to real interest rate, growth rate and inflation rate. At the second stage, the weighted average real interest rate on the current central government debt stock is estimated. Then the debt sustainability issue is evaluated by comparing the estimated primary surplus-to-GNP ratios required with the targeted primary surplus ratio, taking into consideration the real interest rate on the existing stock

Unutulan bir toplumsal amaç: Sanayilesme ne oluyor? Ne olmali?

Fikret Şenses and Erol Taymaz

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Abstract: Ikinci Dünya Savasi’ni izleyen günlerde sosyalist ülkelerle birlikte gelismekte olan ülkelerin en temel toplumsal amaçlarindan biri olarak ortaya çikan sanayilesmenin özellikle son yirmi yilda çok büyük ölçüde gündemden düstügü gözlenmektedir. Türkiye ise, daha Cumhuriyet’in kuruldugu ilk günlerden baslayarak sanayilesmeyi önemli bir hedef olarak belirlemis ve 1950’li yillarin baslarina gelindiginde hemen hemen tamami devlet öncülügünde olmak üzere kayda deger bir sanayilesme atilimi gerçeklestirmistir. Savas sonrasi dönemde bu yöndeki çabalar, Savas sirasindaki özel sermaye birikiminin de katkisiyla sürmüs ve 1960’li yillarin basinda merkezi planlamanin baslamasiyla yeni bir ivme kazanmistir. 1970’li yillarin sonlarinda artan kisa dönem istikrarsizlik ve daha önemlisi had safhaya varan dis kaynak kitligi nedeniyle sanayilesme çabalari tikanmistir. Türkiye, 1980 yili baslarindan itibaren Dünya Bankasi ve IMF desteginde serbest piyasa agirlikli disa açik politikalari esas alan neoliberal politikalari uygulayan ülkeler arasinda yer almistir. Bu süreç içinde ekonomi, hizli, sürekli ve degisken oranlarda enflasyona ve 1989 ortalarinda serbestlestirilen sermaye hareketlerine bagli olarak finansal krizler ve büyük çapli döviz kuru ve faiz oranlari dalgalanmalarinin belirledigi kisa dönem gündem içine hapsolmustur. Bunun sonucunda da yatirim, büyüme, istihdam ve gelir dagilimi gibi orta ve uzun döneme yönelik hedefler yaninda sanayilesme hedefinden de giderek uzaklasilmistir. Bu çalisma, bu kisa giristen sonra, her biri çalismanin bundan sonraki kesimlerini olusturacak üç temel amaca yöneliktir. Birinci amaç, diger iki amacimiza yönelik altyapiyi olusturabilmek için son elli yilda sanayilesmeye iliskin temel yaklasim ve bakislarindaki degisiklikleri ana hatlariyla betimlemek ve konumuz açisindan özel anlam tasiyan kimi somut sanayilesme politikalarini daha ince bir ayrinti düzeyinde incelemektir. Çalismanin ikinci amaci, Türkiye’nin sanayilesme deneyimini son yirmi yil üzerinde yogunlasarak ana hatlariyla degerlendirmek, gerçeklestirilen üretim artisinin ve yapisal degisimin boyutlarini ve baslica kirilma noktalarini belirlemek ve kisa dönem krizlerin bu süreç üzerindeki etkisini izlemektir1. Yine bu baglamda bir diger amaç, Türkiye’nin sanayilesme performansini büyüme, yatirim, istihdam, dis ticaret, teknolojik gelisme ve verimlilik gibi temel göstergeler isiginda ve yer yer benzer konumdaki ülke deneyimleriyle de iliskili olarak degerlendirmektir. Çalismanin üçüncü temel amaci, sanayilesmenin kimi olumsuz özelliklerine ve önündeki temel engellere dikkat çekmek ve bugünün kisa dönem agirlikli kisir gündeminden kurtulup vakit geçirmeksizin basta sanayilesme olmak üzere orta ve uzun dönemli amaçlara yönelme geregini vurgulamak ve sanayilesme hedefine yönelik olarak atilmasi gereken adimlar ekseninde öneriler gelistirmektir.