erc/metu
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE IN ECONOMICS  IV
September 13-16, 2000, Ankara

The Rate of Change in the Military Equilibrium between Arms Racing States

Christos Kollias (TEI of Larissa, Greece)
Kleanthis Sirakoulis (TEI of Larissa, Greece)

Abstract  

The dynamics of armaments race between antagonistic powers has attracted considerable attention in the relevant literature. The paper uses probability theory to examine the relevant contribution of various factors that may influence the movement between different states of military balance between two countries engaged in arms competition. The dominant variable in our model is the security difference between two hypothetical players in an arms race environment where the military hardware used by both countries is acquired through the international arms market. The security difference is quantified in a hypothetical scale, taking values in N. The model developed indicates that the military equilibrium between the states involved in the armaments competition depends upon the sum of infinite terms of a geometrical progression. The model estimates the probabilities under which the security difference variable takes various values and the factors that influence this probability.

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