Programme

Last updated on August 25th, 2003 | Son güncellendiği tarih: 25 Ağustos 2003


September 6 / 6 Eylül

OPENING LECTURE

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 9:00-10:00 Kemal Kurdaş Hall

Süreyya Serdengeçti (Governor, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

Convenor: Oktar Türel (METU)

KEYNOTE ADDRESS / TINBERGEN LECTURE

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 10:15-11:00 Kemal Kurdaş Hall

Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregresssion
Kevin Hoover (University of California at Davis, USA)
with
Selva Demiralp (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA)

Convenor: Hans-Martin Krolzig (Oxford University, UK)

KEYNOTE ADDRESS / ERC LECTURE

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Kemal Kurdaş Hall

Empire of Capital
Ellen Meiksins Wood (York University, Canada)

Convenor: Sungur Savran

A1-A INVITED LECTURE IN MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-14:15 Room 1 / Salon 1

Unemployment-Poverty Tradeoffs
Pierre-Richard Agénor (Yale University and the World Bank, USA)

Convenor: Hasan Ersel (Yapı Kredi Bank)

A1-B INVITED LECTURE IN TECHNOLOGY POLICY

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 14:30-15:15 Room 1 / Salon 1

Innovation Policies in OECD Countries:Trends and Drivers
Daniel Malkin (OECD, France)

Convenor: Yakup Kepenek (MP, Grand National Assembly of Turkey)

A2-A INVITED LECTURE IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-14:15 Room 2 / Salon 2

Global Economy in Transition
Henry C. K. Liu (Liu Investment Group, USA)

Convenor: Cem Somel (METU)

A2-B INVITED LECTURE IN POLITICAL ECONOMY

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 14:30-15:15 Room 2 / Salon 2

Imperialism of Our Time
Aijaz Ahmad (York University, Canada)

Convenor: Ellen Meiksins Wood (York University, Canada)

A3 ADVANCES IN ECONOMETRICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 3 / Salon 3

Testing for Relative Predictive Accuracy: A Critical Viewpoint
Robert M. Kunst (University of Vienna, Austria)

A Hypergeometric Test for Omitted Nonlinearity
Steve Lawford (Brunel University, UK)

Tests for Normality Based on Robust Regression Residuals
Özlem Önder (Ege University)
Asad Zaman (Lahore University, Pakistan)

Convenor: Haluk Erlat (METU)

A4 FİNANS, BANKACILIK SİSTEMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 4 / Salon 4

Yeni Büyüme Stratejisi ve Finans Sektörü
Şeref Saygılı (BDDK)

Aracılık Maliyetleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme
Şeref Saygılı (BDDK)
Yasemin Türker Kaya (BDDK)
Münür Yayla (BDDK)

Kurumsal Yönetişim Politikaları
Adalet Hazar (Ziraat Bankası)

Finansal Piyasalarda Yeniden Yapılandırma Sürecinde Risk Yönetiminin Yeri:
Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Analiz
Tuğba Figankaplan (BDDK)

Oturum Başkanı: Ercan Türkan (BDDK)

A5 ADVANCES IN MICROECONOMIC THEORY AND INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 5 / Salon 5

Financial Restrictions and Technological Diversity Effects on Innovation
Maria Garcia-Vega (University Complutense, Spain)

Energy Saving Technical Progress in a Vintage Capital Model
Agustín Pérez Barahona (Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium)
Benteng Zou (Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

Assessing the Firm Performance in the Presence of Agency Problem
Kemal Güven Gülen (Istanbul Commerce University)
Şermin Güngör (Istanbul Commerce University)

Product Variety, Monopolistic Competition and Optimal Taxation
Abuzer Bakış (Galatasaray University)

Convenor: Hakan Orbay (Sabancı University)

A6 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, INDUSTRIALISATION AND GROWTH

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 6 / Salon 6

Externalities in a Networked World
Ayda Eraydın (METU)

Regional Development Inequalities in Turkey:
An Assessment on the Distribution of Investment Insentives
Funda Barbaros (Ege University)
Meneviş Öğüt (Ege University)

Evaluating the Performance of Turkish Manufacturing Clusters
Sedef Akgüngör (Işık University)

Economic Liberalization, Markups, and Total Factor Productivity Growth in
Turkey's Manufacturing Industries
Sacit Hadi Akdede (Adnan Menderes University)

Convenor: Ümit Şenesen (Istanbul Technical University)

A7 FINANCIAL CRISES:
CAPITAL FLOWS, CONTAGION AND DOMESTIC INCOME DYNAMICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 7 / Salon 7

International Financial Contagion:
Evidence from the Argentine Crisis of 2001-2002
Melisso Boschi (University of Essex, UK)

The Reversal of International Bank Lending Flows in Emerging Countries during Financial Crises
Cynthia Kalasopatan (Université de la Méditerranée, France)

In the Aftermath: Was There a Credit Crunch in Turkey?
Mehmet Kerim Gökay (Boğaziçi University)

Analyzing Durable Goods Purchases and Idiosyncratic Income Uncertainty
Burcu Duygan (The World Bank, USA)

Convenor: Almila Karasoy (CBRT)

A8 TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ: AMPİRİK ÇALIŞMALAR

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 8 / Salon 8

Getiri Farkı Ekonomik Aktivitenin Tahmininde Öncü Gösterge İşlevi Görebilir mi? Türkiye Örneği
Kayhan Akyıldız (Hazine Müsteşarlığı)

Dış Ticaret Rejimindeki Değişimlerin İthalatın Fiyat ve Gelir Esneklikleri Üzerine Etkisi
Murat Atan (Gazi Üniversitesi)
Semiha Kaya (Gazi Üniversitesi)
Filiz Özağ (Gazi Üniversitesi)

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İstikrar İlişkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma
Hamza Çeştepe (Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi)
Hasan Vergil (Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi)

Reel Döviz Kuru Değişimleri ile Sektörel Dış Ticaret Fiyatları Arasındaki Uzun Dönem İlişki
Kamil Çekerol (Anadolu Üniversitesi)
Hüseyin Gürbüz (Osmangazi Üniversitesi)

Hava Durumu Borsa Getirisini Etkiler mi? İMKB Örneği
Ekrem Tufan (Anadolu Üniversitesi)
Bahattin Hamarat (Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Aykut Kibritçioğlu (Ankara University)

B1 INVITED SESSION: MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND GROWTH

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 1 / Salon 1

Optimal Growth under Military Threat
Hasan Ersel (Yapı Kredi Bank)

Investment for Recovery and Growth
Ercan Uygur (Ankara University)

Political Instability, Public Investment and Macroeconomic Performance
Gülçin Özkan (University of York, UK)

Convenor: Fatih Özatay (Deputy Governor, CBRT)

B2 INVITED LECTURE IN RADICAL POLITICAL ECONOMICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-16:45 Room 2 / Salon 2

TIAA (There is an Alternative) to Capitalism
Al Campbell (University of Utah, USA)

Convenor: Nail Satlıgan (Marmara University)

B3 EXPECTATIONS, INFORMATION AND MONETARY POLICY

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 3 / Salon 3

Rising Role of Expectations and the Anticipation Effect
Selva Demiralp (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA)

Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions with Public Information:
The Chilean Case
Matías Tapia Gonzalez (Central Bank of Chile, Chile)
Andrea Tokman (Central Bank of Chile, Chile)

Asymmetric Information, Stock Returns and Monetary Policy:
A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
Bedri Kamil Onur Taş (Boston College, USA)

Heterogeneity of Investment Decisions and Monetary Policy :
A Comparative Study between Europe and the United-States
Pierre Barbaroux (CNRS-IDEFI, Sophia-Antipolis, France)
Frank Paolucci (CNRS-IDEFI, Sophia-Antipolis, France)

Convenor: Cevriye Aysoy (CBRT)

B4 FINANCIAL CRISES: THEORY AND THE TURKISH EVIDENCE

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

Currency Crises:
Can They be Analyzed under Perception Based Decision Theory Framework?
Naci Canpolat (Hacettepe University)
İbrahim Özkan (Hacettepe University)
I.B. Türkşen (University of Toronto, Canada)

Economic Liberalization and Foreign Exchange Crises:
The Case of Turkey (1986-2002)
Erişah Arıcan (Marmara University)
Vildan Serin (Fatih University)

Leading Financial Crises Indicators in Turkey
Duygu Ayhan (Dokuz Eylül University)
Yaprak Gülcan (Dokuz Eylül University)

Depositor Behaviour and Market Discipline in Turkey
Selçuk Caner (Bilkent University)
A. Ece Ungan (Alternatif Bank A.Ş)

Convenor: Murad Kayacan (Istanbul Stock Exchange)

B5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT:
POLICIES AND INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

A Test of Pollution Haven Hypothesis: Case of Turkey
Elif Akbostancı (METU)
Gül İpek Tunç (METU)
Serap Türüt Aşık (METU)

Transboundary Pollution in the Black Sea:
Comparison of Institutional Arrangements
Başak Bayramoğlu (CERAS-ENPC, France)

Alternative Environmental Policies for Turkey within
a Regional General Equilibrium Model
Şebnem Şahin (University Paris I, France)

Estimeation of the Global Effect on International Prices in the Framework of MENA and UR Bilateral Liberalisation Process in Agricultural Sector
Rafael de Arce (University Autonomous of Madrid, Spain)
Ramon Mahia (University Autonomous of Madrid, Spain)
Gonzalo Escribano (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Spain)

The Role of Linguistic and Ethnic Ties in International Travel:
An application of the Gravity Model
Hyun-Hoon Lee (Kangwon National University, S. Korea)
Hyeon-Seung Huh (Hallym University, S. Korea)
Myung-Hee Kim (Hangyang University, S. Korea)

Convenor: Osman Zaim (Bilkent University)

B6 INVITED SESSION
ADVANCES IN MATHEMATICAL FINANCE I:
CREDIT RISK AND HEDGING

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

Credit Risk: Structural and Reduced-Form Approach
Monique Jeanblanc (Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne, France)

Hedging of Credit Derivatives within the Reduced-Form Framework
Marek Rutkowski (Warsaw University, Poland)

Convenor: Hayri Körezlioğlu (METU)

B7 BİLİM VE TEKNOLOJİ POLİTİKALARI TASARIMI: VİZYON 2023

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

Bilim ve Teknoloji Stratejileri: Vizyon 2023
Filiz Çimen (TÜBİTAK)
Turgut Tümer (TÜBİTAK ve ODTÜ)

Teknoloji Kümeleri ve Yol Haritaları
Mustafa Ay (TÜBİTAK)
Mehmet Kılıç (TÜBİTAK)

Senaryo Planlama Amacıyla Delfi Anket Yönteminin Kullanımı
Haluk Geray (Ankara Üniversitesi)

Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde Teknolojik Yetenek: Kaynakları ve Etkileri
Güçlü T. Durmaz (TÜBİTAK)
Işık Erten (TÜBİTAK)
Erol Taymaz (ODTÜ)

Oturum Başkanı: Turgut Tümer (TÜBİTAK ve ODTÜ)

B8 ADVANCES IN LABOUR ECONOMICS: WAGES, GENDER AND POVERTY

Sept 6 / 6 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Import Competition and Wages in Unionised Labour Markets:
Cournot versus Bertrand Competition
Ellen Brock (National University of Ireland, Ireland)

The Dynamics of Inequality in an Imperfect Labour Market
Fazeer Sheik Rahim (University of Reading, UK)

Occupational Sex Segregation in Turkey 1975-2000
Serap Palaz (Balıkesir University)
Judith Rich (Monash University, Australia)

Gender and Poverty in Turkey
Öner Günçavdı (Istanbul Technical University)
Raziye Selim (Istanbul Technical University)

Convenor: Turalay Kenç (Imperial College, UK)

September 7 / 7 Eylül

C1-A INVITED LECTURE IN INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS, BANKING AND FINANCE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-9:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

Pricing Risks Right:
The Key Policy Tool to Avoid Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
Liliana Rojas-Suarez (Center for Global Development, USA)

Convenor: Şükrü Binay (Deputy Governor, CBRT)

C1-B INVITED LECTURE IN MONETARY MACROECONOMICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 10:00-10:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach
Pierpaolo Benigno (New York University, USA)
with
Michael Woodford (Princeton University, USA)

Convenor: Gülçin Özkan (University of York, UK)

C2 INVITED SESSION:
REVISITING MACROECONOMICS IN THE AGE OF FINANCE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

Changing Structures of National and International Finance
C. P. Chandrasekhar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, India)

Deflation, Unemployment and Macroeconomic Policy in the Age of Finance
Jayati Ghosh (Jawaharlal Nehru University, India)

Globalization, Distribution and Social Policy: A Cross-Country Analysis
Gökhan Buturak (Bilkent University)
Erinç Yeldan (Bilkent University)

The Dominance of Finance: Implications for the Global Economy
Pradhab Patnaik (Jawaharlal Nehru University, India)

Illusion of Macroeconomic Adjustment and Reality of Structural Complexity
Fatma Doğruel (Marmara University)
Suut Doğruel (Marmara University)

Convenor: Oktar Türel (METU)

C3-A INVITED LECTURE IN MICROECONOMETRICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-9:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

Wage Policy in the Health Care Sector:
A Panel Data Analysis of Nurses' Labour Supply
Badi H. Baltagi (Texas A&M University, USA)
with
Jan Erik Askildsen (University of Bergen, Norway)
Tor Helge Holmås (University of Bergen, Norway)

Convenor: İnsan Tunalı (Koç University)

C3-B INVITED LECTURE IN MACROECONOMETRICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 10:00-10:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling
Hans-Martin Krolzig (Oxford University, UK)
with
David F. Hendy (Oxford University, UK)

Convenor: Selva Demiralp (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA)

C4 GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE: THEORIES AND EVIDENCE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

Social Recommendations rather than Social Values
Hakan Aksoy (Boğaziçi University and Koç Portföy)
Erdem Başçı (Bilkent University)

Why are Some Countries Richer than Others?
A Reassessment of Mankiw-Romer-Weil's Test of the Neoclassical Growth Model
Jesus Felipe (Asian Development Bank, Philippines)
John McCombie (Downing College, UK)

Endogenous Growth Theory: A Review of Algebraic Conditions
Jean-François Jacques (Université Paris IX-Dauphine, France)
Antoine Rebeyrol (PHARE Université Paris I-Université Paris X, France)

Rural-Urban Migration, Regionally Segmented Capital Markets, and Economic Growth: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Inquiry
Terry Roe (University of Minnesota, USA)
D. Şirin Saraçoğlu (University of Minnesota, USA)

Convenor: Alpay Filiztekin (Sabancı University)

C5 PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: THE TURKISH EVIDENCE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Turkey
Emek Günaydın (Undersecretariat of Treasury)

Analyzing Public Debt Sustainability in Turkey
Alper Gürler (Türkiye İş Bankası)

A Simulation Framework for Turkey's Debt Strategy
Ali Sercan Atalık (Marmara University)
Koray Çağlayan (Marmara University)
Bora Dirik (Marmara University)
Tuncay Semiz (Marmara University)

An Analysis of Turkish External Debt Sustainability:
Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints
Gülcan Önel (Dokuz Eylül University)

Convenor: Alövsat Müslümov (Doğuş University)

C6 ASSET VALUATION, INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

A Bivariate Markovian Asset Valuation Model: Model Identification
Hayri Körezlioğlu (METU)
Kasırga Yıldırak (METU)

A Statistical Analysis of Intraday Liquidity, Returns and Volatility of an Individual Stock from the Istanbul Stock Exchange
Cumhur Ekinci (Université Aix-Marseille III, France)

Optimal Depreciation Policy in Stochastic Model of Investment Attraction
Vadim Arkin (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russia)
Alexander Slastnikov (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russia)

Evaluating Investment Projects with Raw Material Price Risk
Gültekin Büyükyenerel (METU)

Optimal Level of Investment: Impacts of Backgrounds Multivariate Risks
(Non-Financial Risks)
Jean Fernand Nguema (Université Montpellier 1, France)

Convenor: Oral Erdoğan (Istanbul Bilgi University)

C7 TARIM VE ÇEVRE EKONOMİSİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMALARI

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

Türk Tarım Sektörünün Yeniden Yapılanması ve Olası Sonuçları
Öner Günçavdı (İTÜ)
Saime Suna Kayam (İTÜ)
Suat Küçükçifçi (İTÜ)
Ertuğrul Tokdemir (İTÜ)

Türkiye Açısından Kyoto Protokolü'nün Değerlendirilmesi ve Decomposition (Ayrıştırma) Yöntemi ile CO2 Emisyonun Belirleyicilerinin Analizi
Etem Karakaya (Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi)
Mustafa Özçağ (Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi)

Tarım Sektöründe Kullanılan Motorinin Sübvanse Edilmesinin Türkiye Tarımına Olası Etkileri
İlkay Dellal (Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü)
Erdal Ertürk (Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü)
Sibel Tan (Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü)
Fahri Yavuz (Atatürk Üniversitesi)

Ayçiçeği Üretiminde Faktör-Talep Analizi:Trakya Bölgesi Örneği
Gökhan Unakıtan (Trakya Üniversitesi)
İ. Hakkı İnan (Trakya Üniversitesi)

Çevre Koruma ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Sıfır Toplamlı Oyunun Sonu mu?
Özcan Karahan (Balıkesir Üniversitesi)
Gökhan Orhan (Balıkesir Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Mahir Fisunoğlu (Çukurova Üniversitesi)

C8 COMPETITION, MERGERS AND EFFICIENCY

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 9:00-11:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Mergers Involving a Failing Firm: Literature Survey and a Case Study
Murat Çetinkaya (Competition Authority)

Efficiency Issues in Horizontal Mergers
Cenk Gülergün (Competition Authority)

Merger Policy with Alternative Mergers and Efficiency Gains
Carlos Razo (Stockholm University, Sweden)

Application of The Proportionality-Calibrated AIDS Model to Predicting Potential Welfare Effects of Mergers Between Fertilizer Sellers as Part of the Turkish Privitization Program.
Serdar Dalkır (Micra Consulting Inc., USA)
Ekrem Kalkan (Competition Authority)

Convenor: Benan Zeki Orbay (Istanbul Technical University)

KEYNOTE ADDRESS / METU LECTURE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Kemal Kurdaş Hall

An Examination of Some Tools for Macro-Econometric Model Building
Adrian Pagan (Australian National University and
the University of New South Wales, Australia)

Convenor: Kevin Hoover (University of California at Davis, USA)

D1-A INVITED LECTURE IN MACROECONOMICS AND GROWTH

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-14:15 Room 1 / Salon 1

Worlds Apart: International and Global Inequality, 1950-2000
Branko Milanovic (The World Bank, USA)

Convenor: Bart Verspagen (ECIS and Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands)

D1-B INVITED LECTURE IN TECHNOLOGY POLICY

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 14:30-15:15 Room 1 / Salon 1

The Impact of EU Regional Support on Growth and Convergence in the European Union
Bart Verspagen (ECIS and Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands)
with
Aadne Cappelen (Statistics Norway, Norway)
Fulvio Castellacci (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway)
Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway)

Convenor: Aykut Göker (Technology Development Foundation of Turkey)

D2 KÜRESELLEŞME, GELİR DAĞILIMI VE YOKSULLUK

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 2 / Salon 2

"Küreselleşme" Kıskacında Sendikacılık ve Gelir Dağılımı Üzerine Etkisi
Yüksel Akkaya (Mersin Üniversitesi)

Kamusal Yoksulluk Endeksi Üzerine Bir Deneme
Sezai Temelli (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

Türkiye'nin Kapitalist Sisteme Eklemlenme Süreçlerinde Çalışma Yasaları
Özgür Müftüoğlu (Marmara Üniversitesi)

Bölüşüm İlişkilerinde Devletin Değişen Rolü: Türkiye Açısından Bir Değerlendirme
Yasemin Özuğurlu (Mersin Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Fuat Ercan (Marmara Üniversitesi)

D3-A INVITED LECTURE IN ECONOMETRICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-14:15 Room 3 / Salon 3

Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes
Luc Bauwens (Université Catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
with
Nikolaus Hautsch (University of Konstanz, Germany)

Convenor: Jan Erik Magnus (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

D3-B INVITED LECTURE IN ECONOMETRICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 14:30-15:15 Room 3 / Salon 3

Periodic Unobserved Component Time Series Models
Estimation and Forecasting with Applications
Marius Ooms (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
with
Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Convenor: Robert M. Kunst (University of Vienna, Austria)

D4-A INVITED LECTURE: DEFENCE ECONOMICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-14:15 Room 4 / Salon 4

A Survey of Techniques and Applications in Conflict Management,
Peace Economics and Peace Science
Manas Chatterji (Binghamton University, USA)

Convenor: Jülide Yıldırım (Gazi University)

D4-B DAVETLİ KONFERANS:
İSTİKRAR PROGRAMLARI VE MALİYE POLİTİKALARI

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 14:30-15:15 Room 4 / Salon 4

Kamu Borçlanması, İstikrar Programları ve Uygulanan Maliye Politikalarının Kalitesi:
Genel Sorunlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Gözlemler
Ferhat Emil (Hazine Müsteşarlığı)
H. Hakan Yılmaz (DPT)

Oturum Başkanı: Oktar Türel (METU)

D5 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES:
POLICIES, OWNERSHIP AND PRODUCTIVITY

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 5 / Salon 5

The Impact of Industrial Development Policies on Indigenous Manufacturing Firms:
A Comparison of Singapore with Taiwan and Korea
K. Ali Akkemik (Nagoya University, Japan)

The Spillover Effects of Public Capital on the Turkish Private Manufacturing Industries in the Geographical Regions
Ertuğrul Deliktaş (Ege University)
Metin Karadağ (Ege University)
Özlem Önder (Ege University)

The Spillover Effects of Foreign Owned Firms on Domestic Firms in Turkish Manufacturing Industry
Mehmet Karaçuka (Ege University)
Recep Kök (Dokuz Eylül University)

Test of the Export Oriented Economic Growth:
The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Sector
Sanlı Ateş (Çukurova University)
Tuğba Direkçi (Çukurova University)
Nejat Erk (Çukurova University)

Analysis of Factors Affecting Total Factor Productivity of Rural Small Industries Sponsored by Jahad-Agriculture Organization of Isfahan Province, Iran
Abbas-Ali Dehghani (Jahad-Agriculture Organization of Isfahan Province, Iran)
Mohammad-Naghi Gholami (Isfahan University of Technology, Iran)
Javad Mir-Mohammad Sadeghi (Isfahan University of Technology, Iran)

Convenor: Şeref Saygılı (BRSA)

D6 INVITED SESSION
ADVANCES IN MATHEMATICAL FINANCE II:
OPTION PRICING AND OPTIMAL INVESTMENT

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 6 / Salon 6

Model Uncertainty and its impact on Option Pricing
Rama Cont (Ecole Polytechnique, France)

Optimal Investment under the Threat of Crashes for Banks and Insurers
Ralf Korn (Kaiserslautern University, Germany)

Convenor: Esma Gaygısız (METU)

D7 MONETARY POLICY RULES AND THE NEW KEYNESIAN MACROECONOMICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 7 / Salon 7

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Optimal Reaction Function under Imperfect Information
Runchana Pongsaparn (University of Bristol, UK)

The Influence of the Choice of Utility Function on the Estimation of the Monetary Policy Rule in the Sticky-Price Model
Svitlana Maslova (University of Cambridge, UK)

Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis in an Optimising Model
with Expectations Lags
Juan Paez-Farrell (University of Hull, UK)

Open Economy Monetary Policy Rules in a Model of Incomplete Exchange Rate
Pass-through
Özge Şenay (METU)

Convenor: Hakan Kara (CBRT)

D8 LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 8 / Salon 8

Labor Demand in Turkey
Seyfettin Gürsel (Galatasaray University)
Haluk Levent (Galatasaray University)

Patterns and Determinants of Rural-Urban Migration in Turkey
Hakan Ercan (METU)
Enver Taştı (State Institute of Statistics)

Transitions in the Turkish Labor Market: Evidence from Individual Level Data
Aysıt Tansel (METU)
H. Mehmet Taşçı (METU)

Labor Market Dynamics Based on the HLFS Panel, 2000-2002
Ramazan Baltacı (State Institute of Statistics)
İnsan Tunalı (Koç University)

Convenor: Özlem Onaran (Istanbul Technical University)

E1 PANEL: ARACILIK MALİYETLERİNİN BANKACILIK SİSTEMİ VE
REEL SEKTÖR ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 1 / Salon 1

Osman Arıoğlu (TC Maliye Bakanlığı Gelirler Genel Müdürü)
Ahmet Kırman (İş Bankası Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı ve Ankara Üniversitesi)
Güven Sak (TCMB Para Politikası Kurulu Üyesi ve Ankara Üniversitesi)
Ercan Türkan (BDDK Başkan Yardımcısı)
Oktay Varlıer (TÜSİAD Yönetim Kurulu Üyesi ve Ekonomik ve Mali İşler Komisyon Başkanı)

Oturum Başkanı: Hasan Ersel (Yapı Kredi Bankası Genel Müdür Yrd.)

E2 INVITED SESSION: MARXIST PERSPECTIVES ON
THE NEW WORLD ORDER

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

The New Phase of Neoliberalism
Gerard Dumenil (CEPREMAP, France)

The Political Economy of New Liberalism in Brazil, 1980-2003
Alfredo Saad-Filho (SOAS, University of London, UK)

The Dynamics of Imperialism in the post-Soviet Period:
Towards a Third World War?
Sungur Savran

Convenor: John Milios (National Technical University of Athens, Greece)

E3 NONSTATIONARITY, VAR AND COINTEGRATION

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 3 / Salon 3

A Specification Search Algorithm for Cointegrated Systems
Michal Kurcewicz (Warsaw University, Poland)
Jerzy Mycielski (Warsaw University, Poland)

Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions
Alessio Moneta (Saint Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy)

Testing for a Random Walk in Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models
Walter Distaso (University of Exeter, UK)

Convenor: Nadir Öcal (METU)

E4 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND MONETARY POLICY

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

A Taylor-type Rule to Assess Monetary Policy in Turkey
Asaf Savaş Akat (İstanbul Bilgi University)
M. Ege Yazgan (İstanbul Bilgi University)

The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg
Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı (Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva, Switzerland)
Charles Wyplosz (CEPR and Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva, Switzerland)

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy for Turkey
Selim Elekdağ (Johns Hopkins University, USA)

Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms in Chile:
Has the Effect of the Monetary Policy Changed in Time? Why?
Matías Tapia Gonzalez (Central Bank of Chile, Chile)
Veronica Mies (Central Bank of Chile, Chile)

Convenor: Kürşat Kunter (CBRT)

E5 WELFARE ECONOMICS AND INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

Information Presentation and Behavior in Experimental Oligopolies
Özgür Gürerk (University of Erfurt, Germany)
Reinhard Selten (University of Bonn, Germany)

Implications of Software Piracy on Social Welfare
Barış Çevik (Boğaziçi University)
Gökhan Özertan (Boğaziçi University)

What do Patent Data Reveal? The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Industries
Ümmühan Gökovalı (METU)

Sunk Cost, Entry and Exit Barriers in Malaysian Food Manufacturing Industry
Ahmad Zainuddin Abdullah (Univ Putra Malaysia, Malaysia)
Nor Ghani Md Nor (Univ Putra Malaysia, Malaysia)

Measuring Degree of Competition in the U.K. Tea Market:
A Dynamic Error Correction Approach
Aydın Çelen (Competition Authority)

Convenor: Güler Aras (Yıldız Technical University)

E6 ADVANCES IN MATHEMATICAL FINANCE:
MODELING RISKS, INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO RETURNS

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

Valuing Corporate Liabilities when Default Threshold is not an Absorbing Barrier
Frank Moraux (University of Rennes 1, France)

Multifractal Behaviour of Stock Indices
Massimo Squillante (University of Calabria, Italy)
Rosanna Lembo (University of Calabria, Italy)
Aldo Ventre (University of Calabria, Italy)

Effect of Parameter Estimation Errors on Computed Option Prices.
Gültekin Büyükyenerel (METU)

Financial Market Model with "Large" Informed Investor
Monique Pontier (Université Paul Sabatier, France)
Axel Grorud (Université de Provence, France)

Convenor: Marek Rutkowski (Warsaw University, Poland)

E7 TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ: YEREL, BÖLGESEL VE SEKTÖREL DİNAMİKLER

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

İmalat Sanayiinde Bölgesel Gelişmeler (1981-2000)
Malmquist Toplam Faktör Verimliliği İndeksinin Sağladığı Yorum Olanakları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme
İlknur Yavuz (MPM)

Türkiye'de İlçeler Arası Gelir Dağılımını Belirleyen Faktörler
Aytekin Güven (Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi)
Ramazan Sarı (Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi)

KOBİ'lerde Liderlik Davranışları: Gaziantep Örneği
Muhsin Halis (Gaziantep Üniversitesi)
Mehmet Tekinkuş (Gaziantep Üniversitesi)

Kadın Girişimciliğinin Önündeki Engeller, Mikro ve Küçük İşletmeler
Şemsa Özar (Boğaziçi Üniversitesi)

Türk Tarımı ve Şirketleşme
Selim Soydemir (SPK)

Oturum Başkanı: Ayda Eraydın (METU)

E8 INSTITUTIONS AND LABOUR MARKET PERFORMANCE

Sept 7 / 7 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Evidence on Negative Employment Effects of Minimum Wage in Inflexible Markets:
Part-time Jobs and Female Labor Force Participation in Turkey
Orgül Demet Öztürk (University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA)

Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets in Turkey, 1980-1995
Alpay Filiztekin (Sabancı University)

Tax Policies and Urban Informal Employment: The Turkish Experience
Hakan Ercan (METU)

Labor Market Flexibility in Turkey and EU
Şule Özler (University of California Los Angeles, USA)
Erol Taymaz (METU)

Convenor: Engelbert Stockhammer (Wirtschaftsuniversitaet Wien, Austria)

September 8 / 8 Eylül

F1-A INVITED LECTURE IN INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-9:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization
Graciela L. Kaminsky (NBER and George Washington University, USA)
with
Sergio L. Schmukler (World Bank)

Convenor: Faik Öztrak (Former Undersecretariat of Treasury)

F1-B INVITED LECTURE IN MONETARY MACROECONOMICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 10:00-10:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

The Importance of Financial Research for Central Banks
Philipp Hartmann (European Central Bank)

Convenor: Şükrü Binay (Deputy Governor, CBRT)

F2 INVITED SESSION: CAPITAL, LABOUR AND VALUE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

Capital as a Social Relation
George C. Comninel (York University, Canada)

The Debate about the Future of the Work: A Review and Critique
Peter Meiksins (Cleveland State University, USA)

Marx's Value theory Revisited: A 'Value-form' Approach
John Milios (National Technical University of Athens, Greece)

Convenor: David McNally (York University, Canada)

F3-A INVITED LECTURE IN ECONOMETRICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-9:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

Why Pretesting is a Problem?
Jan Erik Magnus (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

Convenor: Luc Bauwens (Université Catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

F3-B INVITED LECTURE IN ECONOMETRICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 10:00-10:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

Some Considerations on the Use of Panel Methods in Testing for Unit Roots and Cointegration
Anindya Banerjee (European University Institute, Italy)

Convenor: Badi H. Baltagi (Texas A&M University, USA)

F4 TÜRKİYE'DE FİNANSAL KRİZLER

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

Türkiye'de Kasım 2000 ve Şubat 2001 Krizlerinin Halka Açık Şirketlere Etkileri
Ali Küçükçolak (İMKB)

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki Finansal Krizler:
Türkiye, Meksika ve Güney Kore Deneyimlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi
Nilgün Erdem (Ankara Üniversitesi)

Bankacılık Sektöründe Yaşanan Sistemik Risk ve Krizler ile Geliştirilen Risk Yönetimi Uygulamaları ve Mekanizmaları
Murad Kayacan (İMKB)
Havana Öngeoğlu (Şekerbank Genel Müdürlüğü)

Esneklik: Kriz Dönemlerindeki Esneklik Uygulamaları Konusunda Bir Alan Çalışması
İsmail Bakan (Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi)
Regaip Baykal (BOSSA)
Hakkı Eraslan (Boğaziçi Üniversitesi)

Belirsizlik Altında Yatırım Kararlarında İMKB Örneği
Metin Ustaoğlu (İMKB)

Oturum Başkanı: Naci Canpolat (Hacettepe Universitesi)

F5 FISCAL POLICY, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENDITURES

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

Is Public Capital more Productive than Private Capital?
Macroeconomic Evidence from Pakistan, 1965-2000
Naveed H. Naqvi (University of Durham, UK)

Dynamic Implications of Fiscal Policy: Crowding out or Crowding In?
Faik Bilgili (Erciyes University)

Political Business Cycles in the Turkish Economy: 1977-2001
Yasemin Kuzu (CBRT)

Private Investment and Debt Overhang: The Case of Turkey
Burak Gürbüz (Galatasaray University)
Marc Raffinot (University Paris-IX Dauphine, France)

Convenor: Burak Saltoğlu (Marmara University)

F6 EUROPEAN UNION: GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND ECONOMIC POLICY

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

The Euro Cash Changeover Process
Mikael Stenkula (Lund University, Sweden)

Stabilization Policies for a Small Open Economy in a Monetary Union
Rene Torres-Cabral (University of York, UK)

Integration, Productivity Growth and Convergence
Ali M. Kutan (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville and ZEI, USA)
Taner Yiğit (Bilkent University)

When can the Candidates Catch up the Members?
A Test of Convergence Hypothesis in the European Union
Fuat Erdal (Adnan Menderes University)
Sacit Hadi Akdede (Adnan Menderes University)

Convenor: Bilin Neyaptı (Bilkent University)

F7 TEKNOLOJİK YENİLİK, REKABET VE FİRMA DAVRANIŞLARI

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

Yoğunlaşma İşlemlerinin Başlangıç Noktası: Kontrol Kavramı ve Türleri
Abdulgani Güngördü (Rekabet Kurumu)
Mehmet Akif Kayar (Rekabet Kurumu)

Küreselleşme, Stratejik İttifaklar ve Rekabet Kuralları
Mehmet Yanık (Rekabet Kurumu)

Türk Finans Sektöründe Öğrenen Organizasyon Olmak:
T.C. Ziraat Bankası Örneği
Diğde Çalık (Ziraat Bankası)
Aysun Özen (Ziraat Bankası)

Teknolojik Yenilik ve Rekabeti Artırmada Yenilik Sistemleri ve Teknoloji Öngörüsü
Ayten Ayşen Kaya (Ege Üniversitesi)

Avrupa Birliği Sürecinde KOBİ'lerin Rekabet Çabaları: Yenilik Stratejisi
Mustafa Kurt (Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi)
Yusuf Topal (Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Yusuf Işık (TBMM)

F8 PENSION SYSTEMS AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Misinformation and Retirement Wealth:
Re-Estimating the Offset Effect of Pension on Private Wealth
Tiziana Brancaccio (University College Dublin, Ireland)

Dynamic Portfolio Effects of Labor Income
Turalay Kenç (Imperial College, UK)

Review of Pension Schemes under Labor Market Asymmetries
Renginar Dayangaç (Galatasaray University)
Bilge Öztürk (Galatasaray University)

Reward-Risk Portfolio Selection and Stochastic Dominance
Enrico De Giorgi (University of Zurich, Switzerland)

Convenor: Fazeer Sheik Rahim (University of Reading, UK)

KEYNOTE ADDRESS / CBRT LECTURE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Kemal Kurdaş Hall

The Lessons Learnt from the Recent Crises for the Financial Markets
Mario Blejer (Director, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina)

Convenor: Şükrü Binay (Deputy Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

G0 PANEL
TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ: KRİZ VE BÜYÜME DİNAMİKLERİ

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Kemal Kurdaş Salonu

Fatih Özatay (TCMB Başkan Yardımcısı)
Ahmet Tıktık (DPT Müşteşarı)
H. İbrahim Çanakçı (Hazine Müşteşarı)
M. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu (TOBB Başkanı)
Ersin Özince (Türkiye Bankalar Birliği Başkanı)

Panel Başkanı: Güven Sak (Ankara Üniversitesi, TCMB Para Politikası Kurulu Üyesi)

G2 CAPITAL FLOWS, GLOBALISATION AND FINANCIAL CRISES

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 2 / Salon 2

Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000-1 Revisited
Nazım Ekinci (METU)
Korkut Ertürk (University of Utah, USA)

Responding to Financial Crisis with or without IMF:
A Comparative Analysis of State - Capital Relations
Galip Yalman (METU)
Ergin Yıldızoğlu (METU)

Globalisation and the Role of the State
Turan Subasat (The University of Bath, UK)

Whose money?
Multiple Currencies as an Expression of the Crisis of Capital in Argentina
Mariano Féliz (CEIL-PIETTE/CONICET and National University of La Plata (UNLP), Argentina)

Convenor: Giancarlo Marini (University of Rome, Italy)

G3 ADVANCES IN MACROECONOMETRICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 3 / Salon 3

Non-Parametric Cointegration Test of Purchasing Power Parity in ASEAN-5 Economies
Kian-Ping Lim (Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia)

Modeling Turkish Business Cycles with Markov Switching VAR Model
Burak Saltoğlu (Marmara University)
Zeynep Şenyüz (University of Riverside, USA)
Emre Yoldaş (University of Riverside, USA)

Analysis of Structural Change Models with Applications to U.S. Time Series
Mohamed Boutahar (GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France)
Jamel Jouini (GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

Modelling Seasonality - An Extension of HEGY Approach in the Presence of More Than One Break
Özlem Battal (Newcastle University, UK)

Convenor: Steve Lawford (Brunel University, UK)

G4 ADVANCES IN CORPORATE FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 4 / Salon 4

What Determines Financial Conservatism?
Aydın Özkan (University of York, UK)

Informational Asymmetries, Corporate Governance Infrastructure and
Foreign Portfolio Equity Investments
Canan Yıldırım (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

Econometric Models of Financial Dependence and Investment Intensity for Turkish Firms
Çetin Ali Dönmez (ISE)
İ. Hakkı Eraslan (Boğaziçi University)

Optimization of Financial Processes and Investments
Bülent Karasözen (METU)
Hayri Körezlioğlu (METU)
Stefan Pickl (University of Cologne, Germany)
G. Wilhelm Weber (METU)

Convenor: Ike Mathur (Southern Illinois University, USA)

G5 DEFENCE ECONOMICS I

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 5 / Salon 5

Do Defence Expenditures Increase Debt Rescheduling in Turkey? Probit Model Approach
Erdal Karagöl (Balikesir University)
Selami Sezgin (Pamukkale University)

An Analysis of the Action-Reaction Behaviour in Defense Expenditures of Turkey and Greece
Gülay Günlük-Şenesen (İstanbul University)

Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries:
A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
Nadir Öcal (METU)
Selami Sezgin (Pamukkale University)
Jülide Yıldırım (Gazi University)

Towards a European Defence Union? The Burden Sharing Issue
Christos Kollias (TEI of Larissa, Greece)

Convenor: Manas Chatterji (Binghamton University, USA)

G6 ELECTRICITY MARKETS: THEORY AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 6 / Salon 6

Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market
Gülay Avşar (Monash University, Australia)
Barry A. Goss (Monash University, Australia)

Pricing Structures in the Deregulated UK Electricity Market
Evens Salies (City University, UK)
Catherine Waddams Price (Centre for Competition and Regulation,
University of East Anglia, UK)

Application of Generalized Long Memory Processes to Electricity Prices
Sandro Sapio (Saint Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy)

Transformation of the Turkish Electricity Sector: A Simulation-based Analysis
Serdal Bahçe (METU)

Convenor: Baha Karabudak (Competition Authority)

G7 FINANCIAL ASSET RETURNS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 7 / Salon 7

The Implied Market Parameters of the Yield Curve
Paul Bekker (University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Patience Extracts Sugar From a Lemon:
Buy and Hold with a Classifier System in the Istanbul Securities Exchange
Hakan Aksoy (Boğaziçi University and Koç Portföy)
İsmail Sağlam (Boğaziçi University)

Conditional Correlation in Stock Market and FX Returns - Implications in Finance
Oral Erdoğan (Istanbul Bilgi University)
Harald Schmidbauer (Istanbul Bilgi University)

Empirical Testing of Bidder Behavior in Treasury Auctions
Rasim Özcan (Boston College, USA)

Convenor: Aysu İnsel (Marmara University)

G8 FEMALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 8 / Salon 8

Labor Market Turkey: A look at the Supply Side
Seyfettin Gürsel (Galatasaray University)
Haluk Levent (Galatasaray University)
Enver Taştı (State Institute of Statistics)
Arzu Yörükoğlu-Erakat (State Institute of Statistics)
Ayla Saygılı-Erçevik (State Institute of Statistics)
Pelin Tercan (State Institute of Statistics)

Some Observations on the Limited Participation of Women in Urban Labor Market in Turkey
Yıldız Ecevit (METU)

Are Married Women in Turkey More Likely to Become Added or Discouraged Workers?
Cem Başlevent (Bilgi University)
Özlem Onaran (Istanbul Technical University)

Women's Reasons for Leaving Their Last Job and
Their Labor Force Participation in Turkey, 2000-2002
Aysıt Tansel (METU)
Arzu Yörükoğlu-Erakat (State Institute of Statistics)

Convenor: Meltem Dayıoğlu (METU)

H1-A INVITED LECTURE IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-16:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

Intellectual Property Rights and the Distribution of Gains from Agricultural Research
Richard S. Gray (University of Saskatchewan, Canada)
with
Stavroula Malla (University of Saskatchewan, Canada)
Kien Tran (University of Saskatchewan, Canada)

Convenor: Erol Çakmak (METU)

H1-B INVITED LECTURE IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 17:00-17:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

The Effect of FDI on Agriculture and Food Trade: An Empirical Analysis
Hartley W. Furtan (University of Saskatchewan, Canada)

Convenor: Halis Akder (METU)

H2 IMF POLİTİKALARI, "YAPISAL UYUM, BÜYÜME VE İSTİKRAR"

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

II.Kuşak Yapısal Uyum Programları ve AK Parti İktidarı:
Sermayenin Küresel Sosyal Evrenine Uyum Sürecinde Sınıfsal Açmazlar
Fuat Ercan (Marmara Üniversitesi)

Türkiye'de Finansal Birikim Modelinin İki Yüzü: Büyüme ve İstikrarsızlık?
Sinan Sönmez (Atılım Üniversitesi)

IMF Destekli Programların Sosyal Maliyetleri
Oğuz Esen (İzmir Ekonomi Üniversitesi)

Türkiye Politik Ekonomisinde Etkin Devlet Tartışması
Ahmet Öncü (Sabancı Üniversitesi)
Ahmet Murat Fiş (Sabancı Üniversitesi)
Mehmet Berk Talay (Sabancı Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Ali Bilge (İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi)

H3-A INVITED LECTURE IN MONETARY MACROECONOMICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-16:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

Unique and Stable Equilibria with Forward-Looking Rules in a Euro Area-US Two Country Model
Nicoletta Batini (Bank of England, UK)
with
Paul Levine (University of Surrey, UK)
Joe Pearlman (London Guildhall University, UK)

Convenor: Gülbin Şahinbeyoğlu (CBRT)

H3-B INVITED LECTURE IN INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE FINANCE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 17:00-17:45 Room 3 / Salon 3

Multinational Corporate Financing and Foreign Exchange Parity Relations
Ike Mathur (Southern Illinois University, USA)
with
M. Shahid Ebrahim (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK)

Convenor: Aydın Özkan (York University, UK)

H4 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTEGRATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

Has European Customs Union Agreement Really Affected Turkey's Trade?
Bilin Neyaptı (Bilkent University)
Fatma Taşkın (Bilkent University)
Murat Üngör (Bilkent University)

Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Intermediate Goods between the US and OECD Countries
Kemal Türkcan (North Carolina State University, USA)

On the Pattern of Trade in a Multi-country Economy
Bas Straathof (MERIT- Maastricht University, The Netherlands)

The Competitiveness of Croatian Exporters at the European Market
Lorena Škuflic (University of Zagreb, Croatia)

Convenor: Güzin Erlat (METU)

H5 ECONOMIC THEORY AND METHODOLOGY

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

The Representative Agent, Realism and Economic Methodology
John Lewis (Cardiff University, UK)

Samuelson's 'Curious Case' Reconsidered: It Turns out to be Normal
William Bryant (Macquarie University, Australia)

Lucas Critique and the Thesis of "Microfoundations"
Rojhat Berdan Avşar (Hacettepe University)

Endogenous Growth Theory versus Neoclassical Growth: A Critical Assessment
Mehmet Ağca (University of London SOAS, UK)

Convenor: Turan Subasat (The University of Bath, UK)

H6 FINANCIAL SYSTEMS AND MONETARY POLICY:
THE INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

The Inflationary Consequences of a Currency Changeover:
Evidence from the Michelin Red Guide
Fabrizio Adriani (University of Rome, Italy)
Giancarlo Marini (University of Rome, Italy)
Pasquale Scaramozzino (University of Rome, Italy)

A Bank without Bankers
Katalin Ferber (Comparative Economic Systems, Japan)

Effects of WTO Accession on Croatian Financial System
Marijana Ivanov (University of Zagreb, Croatia)
Nika Sokol Knjaz (University of Zagreb, Croatia)

The Integration of Banking and Industrial Capital in Turkey
Derya Gültekin-Karakaş (University of Sydney, Australia and ITU)

Convenor: Elif Akbostancı (METU)

H7 CAPITAL MARKETS, FOREIGN AID AND GROWTH

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

The Effects of Volatility on Growth through Capital Market Imperfections
Ahmet Aysan (University of Maryland, USA)

The Sequential Causality among Institutional Investors, Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of OECD Countries
Güler Aras (Yıldız Technical University)
Alövsat Müslümov (Doğuş University)

Local Financial Development and the Aid-Growth Relationship
Mwanza Nkusu (IMF, USA)
Selin Sayek (IMF, USA)

Foreign Aid: Where is Your Money?
A Two-Sector Model Spelling out a Simple Response
Raul Fuentes (IRES, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

Capital Stock Contribution to the Productivity of the Argentine Economy During the 1990's: A Hedonic Valuation Approach
Ariel Alberto Coremberg (Ministry of Economy, Argentina)

Convenor: D. Şirin Saraçoğlu (University of Minnesota, USA)

H8 LABOUR MARKET: UNEMPLOYMENT, DISCRIMINATION AND POVERTY

Sept 8 / 8 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Maori Disadvantage in the Labour Market
Robert Alexander (University of Otago, New Zealand)
Murat Genç (University of Otago, New Zealand)
Mohammad Jaforullah (University of Otago, New Zealand)

Explaining European Unemployment:
Testing the NAIRU hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach
Engelbert Stockhammer (Wirtschaftsuniversitaet Wien, Austria)

Technical Instruments and Conceptual Definitions: Theoretical and Practical Implications of the Change on the Definition of Unemployment in Colombia
Juan Carlos Guataqui (Universidad del Rosario, Colombia)

Understanding Poverty Dynamics in Uganda: How Important is Health?
David Lawson (University of Nottingham, UK)

Convenor: Ellen Brock (National University of Ireland, Ireland)

September 9 / 9 Eylül

I1 INVITED LECTURE IN OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 10:00-10:45 Room 1 / Salon 1

The Simple Geometry of the New Open-Economy Macroecononomics
Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA)
with
Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Rome III, Italy and Yale University, USA)

Convenor: Fatma Taşkın (Bilkent University)

I2 INVITED SESSION: THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

World Money and Inter-imperialist Rivalries
David McNally (York University, Canada)

Governance of the Global Economy: National, Global, or Imperial?
Hannes Lacher (Eastern Mediterranean University, N. Cyprus)

Convenor: George C. Comninel (York University, Canada)

I3 MONETARY POLICY AND TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS:
THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 3 / Salon 3

Disaggregate Modelling at Asymmetric Reactions to Monetary Shocks
Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo (University of Newcastle, UK)

Inventory Investment, Financial Mix and Monetary Policy in UK Manufacturing:
A Microeconomic Analysis
Cihan Yalçın (The University of Nottingham, UK and CBRT)

The Optimal Reserve Behavior for Turkey
K. Azim Özdemir (University of Sheffield, UK)

The Inflation Tax in a Cash-in-Advance Model with Variable Velocity
Neil Arnwine (Bilkent University)
Bedriye Çubuk Cicioğlu (Bilkent University)

Convenor: Özge Şenay (METU)

I4 CURRENT ISSUES IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND FISCAL POLICY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour:
A New Model Applied to Cote d'Ivoire
Osman Ouattara (Manchester University, UK)
Mark McGillivray (WIDER, United Nations University, Finland)

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralisation on the Size of Public Sector and Economıc Growth in Turkey
Muhsin Kar (Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University)
İsa Sağbaş (Afyon Kocatepe University)
Hüseyin Şen (Afyon Kocatepe University)

Monetary versus Fiscal Dominance in the Baltic States
Dalia Grigonyte (Center for European Integration Studies, Germany)

The Effects of International Openness on the Public Sector Growth
Ali R. Özdemir (Balikesir University)

Convenor: Serap Türüt-Aşık (METU)

I5 DEFENCE ECONOMICS II

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Aggregate Defense Spending on Aggregate Output:
The Case of Turkey, 1950-2002
Ferda Halıcıoğlu (University of Greenwich, UK)

The Effect of the Military Expenditure on Growth in Turkey Between the Period 1950-2000
Kayan Uras (Oxford University, UK)

The Goal Programming Model for Turkish Military Expenditures, Economic
Growth and Inflation
Sibel Duman (Gazi University)

Arms Race and Economic Growth: Case of India and Pakistan
Nadir Öcal (METU)
Jülide Yıldırım (Gazi University)

Convenor: Gülay Günlük-Şenesen (Istanbul University)

I6 FINANCIAL POLICIES, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

Entrepreneurial Information Search Practice in Turkey
Dilek Çetindamar (Sabancı University)
Ahmet Murat Fiş (Sabancı University)

The Corporate Governance Perspective in View of Related Recent International Developments
Yusuf Işık (Grand National Assembly of Turkey)

Productivity and Efficiency Spillovers for Developing Economies Generated by the Affiliation of Multinational Firms: The South African Economy as a Case Study
G. Van Zyl (Rand Afrikaans University, South Africa)

Does Foreign Direct Investment Improve the Productivity of Firms in Turkey?
Sema Bayraktar Tür (Kocaeli University)

Small Firm Loan Guarantee Scheme Finance 'Additionality' and Economic Effects: Case of Jordan
Maher Al-Mahrouq (The Hashemite University, Jordan)
Mohammad Ali Feizpour (University of Newcastle, UK and University of Yazd, Jordan)
Colin Wren (University of Newcastle, UK)

Convenor: Canan Yıldırım (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

I7 KÜRESELLEŞME, KALKINMA VE İNSAN

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

Hizmet Ticareti Genel Anlaşması (GATS) ve Öğretim Hizmetleri
Özer Erdoğan (ITU)
Lerzan Özkale (ITU)

Finansal Küreselleşme ve Çevre Ülkelerin Durumu
Tahsin Bakırtaş (Sakarya Üniversitesi)
Sohbet Karbuz (Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı, Fransa)

Demokrasi - İktisadî Özgürlük - Siyasi İstikrar Üçgeni Bağlamında Türkiye'nin Ekonomik Özgürlük Endeksi Açısından Yeri
Nihal Mızrak Yıldırım (İnönü Üniversitesi)

Kalkınma Sürecinin Temel Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Açısından Bir Değerlendirme
Meltem Taylan (TBMM)

1945'den 2000'lere Söylem ve Gerçeklik Arasında "Kalkınma"nın Halleri
Mehmet Türkay (Marmara Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Fatma Doğruel (Marmara University)

I8 STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT AND LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 09:00-11:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

General vs. Vocational Secondary School Choice and Labor Market Outcomes in the 80s and 90s
Didem Sezer (State Institute of Statistics)
İnsan Tunalı (Koç University)

The Effect of Export-Oriented Growth on Female Labor Market Outcomes
Cem Başlevent (Bilgi University)
Özlem Onaran (Istanbul Technical University)

Falling Behind While Catching Up:
Changes in the Female-Male Wage Differential in Urban Turkey, 1988 to 1994
Meltem Dayıoğlu (METU)
İnsan Tunalı (Koç University)

Convenor: Haluk Levent (Galatasaray University)

J1 INVITED LECTURE IN MONETARY MACROECONOMICS

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Room 1 / Salon 1

Growth and Inflation in Brazil: Economic Policy in a Highly Indebted Country
Eliana Cardoso (University of Sao Paulo, Brasil)

Convenor: Ercan Uygur (Ankara University)

J2 INVITED LECTURE IN POLITICAL ECONOMY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Room 2/ Salon 2

The Legacy of Karl Polanyi,
Prospects for the World Economy: Lessons of the 1930s
Kari Polanyi-Levitt (McGill University and Karl Polanyi Institute of Political Economy, Canada)

Convenor: Erinç Yeldan (Bilkent University)

J3 INVITED LECTURE IN ECONOMIC THEORY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 11:30-12:15 Room 3 / Salon 3

Modeling Parental Control over Teenage Risk-Taking Behavior:
Applications of Game and Information Theories
V. Joseph Hotz (NBER and University of California Los Angeles, USA)

Convenor: Erdem Başçı (Bilkent University)

K1 PANEL: FORMULATION OF THE NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR EMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 1 / Salon 1

Seyfettin Gürsel (Galatasaray University)
Haluk Levent (Galatasaray University)
Nejdet Kenar (İŞKUR)
Erol Taymaz (METU)

Convenor: İnsan Tunalı (Koç University)

K2/L2 OPEN FORUM ON RADICAL POLITICAL ECONOMICS:
GLOBALISATION AND IMPERALISM: WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-18:00 Room 2 / Salon 2

Discussants

Aijaz Ahmad (York University, Canada)
Erdoğan Bakır (METU and Utah University, USA)
George C. Comninel (York University, Canada)
Gerard Dumenil (CEPREMAP, France)
Hannes Lacher (Eastern Mediterranean University)
Henry C.K. Liu (Liu Investment Group, USA)
David McNally (York University, Canada)
John Milios (National Technical University of Athens, Greece)
Alfredo Saad-Filho (SOAS, University of London, UK)
Cem Somel (METU)
Nail Satlıgan (İstanbul University)
Ellen Meiksins Wood (York University, Canada)
Galip Yalman (METU)

Convenors: Al Campbell (University of Utah, USA) and Sungur Savran

K3 RISKS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM: THE TURKISH EVIDENCE

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 3 / Salon 3

Decomposition of Bank Risks under International Overborrowing:
The Case of Turkey
Dündar Murat Demiröz (İstanbul University)
Gökhan Karabulut (İstanbul University)

Liquidity Risks in Banking Sector:
A Ratio Analysis Applied to Turkish Commercial Banks
Hande Ayaydın (METU)
Esma Gaygısız (METU)

The Determinants of Investors Risk Taking Behaviour
Özcan Kılıç (İstanbul University)
Ahmet Köse (İstanbul University)
Mahmut Paksoy (İstanbul University)

Measuring Credit Risk of a Corporate Loan Portfolio of a
Bank Using Advanced Internal Ratings Base Approach
Barış Akçay (Istanbul Technical University)
Suat Teker (Istanbul Technical University)
Mustafa Turan (Istanbul Technical University)

Convenor: Coşkun Küçüközmen (BRSA)

K4 MONETARY POLICY, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 4 / Salon 4

Does "Inflation Targeting" Reduce Inflation Uncertainty:
Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries
Burak Ertürk (Bilkent University)
Ümit Özlale (Bilkent University)

Liability Substitution and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Case of Turkey
Mehmet Kerim Gökay (Boğaziçi University)
Emin Karagözoğlu (Boğaziçi University)

Currency Substitution When Domestic Currency is Sole Legal Tender
Veronika Movchan (Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Ukraine)
Volodymyr Shportyuk (University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Ukraine)

Cross Fertilization of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Case of Turkey
Zahoor Hussain Javed (Hacettepe University)
Ahmet Şahinöz (Hacettepe University)

Convenor: Nur Keyder (METU)

K5 GROWTH AND INDUSTRIALISATION DYNAMICS

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 5 / Salon 5

An Input Output Analysis of Structural Change in the Turkish Economy
Gül İpek Tunç (METU)

An Analysis of CNBC-e Consumer Confidence Index:
Implications for Domestic Demand in Turkish Economy
Erhan Aslanoğlu (Marmara University)
Sadullah Çelik (Marmara University)
Hurşit Güneş (Marmara University)

Erratic Growth cum Weak Human Capital in an Open Economy:
An Empirical Study of Education and Development in Turkey
Aydın Çeçen (Central Michigan University, USA)
Fatma Doğruel (Marmara University)
Suut Doğruel (Marmara University)

Long Live Fenerbahçe: Production Boosting Effects of Soccer in Turkey
Hakan Berument (Bilkent University)
Eray M. Yücel (CBRT)

Convenor: Zafer Yavan (TÜSİAD)

K6 CAPITAL FLOWS, ASSET RETURNS AND FINANCIAL CRISES

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 6 / Salon 6

An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Traders and Their Portfolio Performances and the Effects of Foreign Capital Flow on Market Dynamics in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Equity Market
Çetin Ali Dönmez (İstanbul Stock Exchange and Boğaziçi University)
Fatih Kiraz (Boğaziçi University)

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate in Turkey :
Is There a Boom-Bust Financial Cycle?
Mehmet Tuncel (University of Nantes, France)

Short Term Capital Mobility and Financial Crises under Asymmetric Risk and Return Conditions
Aslı Bayar (Çankaya University)
Alövsat Müslümov (Doğuş University)

On the Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates:
Evidence from the MENA Region
Lokman Gündüz (Beykent University)
Abdülnasser Hatemi-J. (University of Skövde, Sweden)

Convenor: Nazım Ekinci (METU)

K7 TÜRKIYE EKONOMİSİ: FİNANSAL VE REEL DİNAMİKLER

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 7 / Salon 7

Türkiye'de Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminin Bireysel Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkisi
Mahir Fisunoğlu (Çukurova Üniversitesi)
Berna Balcı İzgi (Çukurova Üniversitesi)

Dışalıma Bağımlılığın Ne Kadarı Fiyat Değişmelerine, Ne Kadarı Yapısal Değişmelere Bağlı?
Gülay Günlük-Şenesen (İstanbul Üniversitesi)
Eren Ocakverdi (ITU)
Ümit Şenesen (ITU)

Konsolide Bütçe Gelir ve Gider Tahminlerinin Gerçekleşmelere Göre Güvenilirlik Düzeyi
H. Hakan Yılmaz (DPT)

Türkiye'de Cari Reel Döviz Kurunun Uzun-Dönem Denge Değerinden Sapmaları
Aykut Kibritçioğlu (Ankara Üniversitesi)
Bengi Kibritçioğlu (Hazine Müsteşarlığı)

Oturum Başkanı: Hakan Özyıldız (Hazine Müsteşarlığı)

K8 EUROPEAN UNION AND TURKEY

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 13:30-15:30 Room 8 / Salon 8

Cost and Benefit Analysis for Turkey's Possible Integration with
European Monetary Union
Evrim Turgutlu (Dokuz Eylül University)

The Economic Impact of the Fifth Enlargement of the European Union on Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries
Gülsüm Yazgan Arıkan (Undersecretariat of Treasury)

How to Situate the Turkish Economy among the European Union Economies?
An Exploratory Analysis
Ayça Akarçay-Gürbüz (Galatasaray University)
Corrine Perraudin (Université Paris I, SAMOS, and EUREQua, France)

The Political Economy of Turkey's Accession Process to the EU:
Lessons Learned, Challenges and Prospects
Panayotis Posporelis (Democritus University of Thrace, Greece)
Pantelis Sklias (Democritus University of Thrace, Greece)

Convenor: Serap Palaz (Balikesir University)

L1 COSTS AND BENEFITS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION AND INTEGRATION

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 1 / Salon 1

Evaluating the Success of Malaysia's Exchange Controls (1998-99)
S. M. Ali Abbas (Oxford University, UK)

The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Developing Economies: A Comparative Study
Nevzat Evrim Önal (Istanbul Technical University)
Lerzan Özkale (Istanbul Technical University)

Financial Integration and Business Cycles: The Impacts of Credit Market on the Volatility of Consumption and Investment in Turkey
Seda Gündüz (Marmara University)
Aysu İnsel (Marmara University)
Mehmet Ali Soytaş (Marmara University)

Common Cycles and Common Trends in Turkey:
An Empirical Investigation for Financial Liberalization Period
Mustafa Nedim Süalp (Marmara University)

Convenor: Suut Doğruel (Marmara University)

L3 BANKING SYSTEMS: FRAGILITY, EFFICIENCY AND REGULATION

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 3 / Salon 3

Interactions in Boardroom: Implications on Financial Fragility
Ömür Süer (Galatasaray University)
Sibel Yamak (Galatasaray University)

Cost Efficiency in Latin American and Caribbean Banking Systems
Oscar Carvallo (Venezuelan Banking Association, Venezuela)
Adnan Kasman (Dokuz Eylül University)

Evolving Market Efficiency of Turkish Banks and Bank Supervision
Selçuk Caner (Bilkent University)
A. Ece Ungan (Alternatif Bank A.Ş)

Macroeconomic Policies and Tendency of Riskiness in Turkish Banking Sector
Süleyman Değirmen (Mersin University)
Feride Öztürk (Mersin University)

Convenor: Çiğdem İzgi Koğar (CBRT)

L4 INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 4 / Salon 4

International Price Transmission and Market Integration:
The Case of a Small Open Economy
Sebastian Fossati (Universidad de la República, Uruguay)
Fernando Lorenzo (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE), Uruguay)
Cesar Rodriguez (Universidad de la República, Uruguay)

Exchange Rate Exposure of Price-Takers: Firm-Level Evidence From the Turkish Manufacturing
Turan Erol (Başkent University)
Ayhan Algüner (Başkent University)
Güray Küçükkocaoğlu (Başkent University)

Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Inflation with Time Series Models:
A Disaggregated Approach
Hande Küçük (CBRT)
Burç Tuğer (CBRT)

Exchage Rate Pass - Through on CPI
Dejan Miljkovic (University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia)

An Analysis of Private Manufacturing Inflation Expectations
Ercan Karadaş (CBRT)
Fethi Öğünç (CBRT)

Convenor: Hakan Berument (Bilkent University)

L5 TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ: SEKTÖREL YAPILAR, REKABET VE İŞSİZLİK

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 5 / Salon 5

Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Endüstri-İçi Ticareti
Hayriye Atik (Erciyes Üniversitesi)
Sevgi Sezer (Erciyes Üniversitesi)

Türkiye'nin Rekabet Dinamikleri:
Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon Sektörü Rekabet Gücünün Karşılaştırmalı Analizi
N. Oğuzhan Altay (Ege Üniversitesi)
Aydanur Gacener (Ege Üniversitesi)

Uluslararası ve Yurtiçi Türk Reel Sektör Firmalarının Sermaye Yapısı
Özgür Arslan (Hacettepe Üniversitesi)
Halit Gönenç (Hacettepe Üniversitesi)

Etkin Ücret Teorileri: Türk İmalat Sanayi Uygulaması
Hüseyin Güler (Gazi Üniversitesi)
Bilge Köksel (Çukurova Üniversitesi)
Ebru Özgür (Çukurova Üniversitesi)

Emek Piyasasında Histeresiz Yaklaşımının Testi
Melike Bildirici (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi)
Murat Donduran (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi)

Oturum Başkanı: Şemsa Özar (Boğaziçi Üniversitesi)

L6 STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND RETURNS:
INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 6 / Salon 6

A Wavelet Analysis of the Stock Price-Volume Relationship
Mehmet Balcılar (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Kyrgyzstan)
Murad Kayacan (ISE)

The Size Reversal in the U.S. Stock Returns: New Evidence Using a Dynamic Market Model Approach
Samer A.M. Al-Rjoub (Hashimite University, Jordan)
M. Kabir Hassan (University of New Orleans, USA)

The Status of Turkish Capital Market against the European Community Capital Markets: A Comparison in the light of Integration Prospects
Mehmet Civan (Gaziantep University)
Mustafa Uğurlu (Gaziantep University)

The Portfolio Selection Approach for Instutional Investors After the Probable Integration of European and Turkish Capital Markets
Murad Kayacan (ISE)
S. Ozan Tüzünalper (ISE)

Modeling and Forecasting Financial Time Series, Comparison of
Forecasting Ability of Neural Networks, Genetic Programming and Econometric
Methods
Faiza Ather (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)
M. M Awais (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)
Asim Karim (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)
Mohammad Ali Farid Khwaja (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)
Omer Shaikh (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)
Umair Hasan Siddiqui (Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan)

Convenor: Gültekin Büyükyenerel (METU)

L7 CURRENT ACCOUNT DYNAMICS AND EXCHANGE RATES:
THE TURKISH EVIDENCE

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 7 / Salon 7

Dynamics of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments in Turkey
Yelda Yücel (Yapı Kredi Bank)

Foreign Trade Equations of Turkey:
Gravity, Customs Union and Free Trade Agreements-An Econometrical Approach
Ebru Arısoy (Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade)
Güzin Bayar (Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade)
Özgür Çalışkan (Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade)

The Effect of Exchange Rate on Turkish Agriculture: An Example of Sunflower Oil
Aydın Başarır (Louisiana State University, USA, and Gaziosmanpasa University)
Selahattin Bekmez (University of Idaho, USA, and Mugla University)
Abdulbaki Bilgiç (Oklahoma State University, USA, and Harran University)

The Dynamics of Exchange Rate in Turkey: 1987- 2002
Sami Keşkek (Fatih University)
Mehmet Orhan (Fatih University)

Convenor: Gül İpek Tunç (METU)

L8 LABOUR ECONOMICS, UNEMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION

Sept 9 / 9 Eylül, 16:00-18:00 Room 8 / Salon 8

Skill Obsolescence and Brain Drain: A Model of Student Non-Return
Nil Demet Güngör (METU)

Returns to Education in Turkey: 1994-2000
Fatma Bircan (METU)
Aysıt Tansel (METU)

International Trade and Labor Demand Elasticities: Evidence from Turkey
Burça Kızılırmak (Ankara University)
Hasan Şahin (Ankara University)

Political Economy of Insecurity:
An Analysis of Turkey's Labour Legislation
Ali Murat Özdemir (Abant İzzet Baysal University)
Gamze Yücesan Özdemir (Abant İzzet Baysal University)

Convenor: Hakan Ercan (METU)

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